gcrTechnology gcrProfessional gcrAviation gcrConsulting Home
  professional header  
spacer About GCR Proffesional Solutions divider Our Services divider Case Studies divider In the News divider Staff divider Contacts divider Employment spacer
professional solutions side picture
CASE STUDIES

Congressman Joseph Cao: GCR Provides the Winning Strategy for Louisiana Congressional District 02

The Challenge

Congressional District 2 is Louisiana’s minority district, with nearly 62% of the 367,500 registered voters being African American. 66% of the registered voters are Democrats, making the race extremely challenging for a Republican candidate. Incumbent Congressman William Jefferson had won nine terms, and had a loyal core constituency that he effectively motivated to the polls in every election. An aggressive strategy to iden-tify, message, and turnout targeted voters would need to be developed in order to give Joseph Cao a chance to win the race. After reviewing voting trends from multiple recent elections, GCR & Associates, Inc. determined that given the anticipated voting pattern in December, it was imperative that turnout among Republican, white Democrat, and Independent voters (Cao Target Voters) be maximized to offset the advantage that the Democratic incumbent had with the District’s African American voters.

The Strategy

GCR & Associates developed a model using voting patterns and trends from multiple low turnout elections. The model suggested 70,000 votes wouldbe cast (17% turnout range), and past election results indicated a turnout of African American voters in the district in the 15% range. For Cao to have a chance to win, an aggressive goal of 2:1 turnout differential between Cao Target Voters and Congressman Jefferson’s core constituency was established.
To accomplish the goal, it was necessary to identify the voters who would likely participate and initiate a very aggressive Get Out The Vote (GOTV) campaign. The entire focus of the campaign was the identificationof those voters who could make a difference in the outcome of the electionand motivating them to vote on December 6, 2008. Targeted direct mail,automated robo calls, live voter identification calls, GOTV calls, door to door canvassing and literature drops were executed to the households GCR identified in order to achieve the 2:1 turnout differential.

The Results

As election results poured in, it became evident the GCR model was highly accurate in predicting the dynamics of this race. 66,846 votes were cast (17.89% turnout), and the differential in Cao Target Voters to African American turn-out was indeed 2:1. Turnout among Cao Target Voters approached 28%, while African American voters turned out at less than 14%. In a district where only 11% of the voters are registered as Republicans, the aggressive strategy of voter identification, messaging, and GOTV propelled Joseph Cao to a remarkable victory. GCR & Associates employed technology and intellect to achieve the desired outcome in CD02.